amit engagement report

Best tweets

• Jul 30, 202616x their median

  OH. MY. GOODNESS. CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND. So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen... On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names... Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent... AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR. By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding. A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid. ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.

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• Apr 3, 20245.0x their median

  I sat down with the CEO and CoFounder of Robinhood, Vlad Tenev, to discuss a variety of topics after Robinhood's Gold Standard event. In the podcast, we discussed the early days of Robinhood and how the company grew, the economics behind Robinhood Gold's new 1% unlimited match on deposits, how Robinhood thinks of the credit market with their new 3% cash back card, international expansion, crypto, and more. This was one of the first long-form podcasts Vlad has sat down for in over 2 years, so was very grateful for him giving the time after one of the busiest weeks in history for the company following their Gold event. I hope you all enjoy and it helps give some more insights into what Robinhood is trying to build!

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• Aug 19, 20263.8x their median

  it is time. it is absolutely time. $BTC 🚀 https://t.co/pYQDFCjjr0

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• Aug 14, 20262.8x their median

  SAUDI INVESTMENT FUND DISCLOSES THEIR LARGEST BUY IN Q2: 154M SHARES OF SPACEX $SPCX, NOW 65% OF THE FUND $25B position…makes sense to be honest. The Saudis don’t need to trade short term because of oil money so they can hold long and they love Elon, MBS has said many times he wants him to expand Tesla into the region. This could be a position they hold on to for a very long time as SpaceX continues to become of the largest AI infrastructure plays in the world.

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• Aug 24, 20262.4x their median

  LEGENDARY INVESTOR STANLEY DRUCKENMILLER JUST WROTE AN OP-ED FOR THE WSJ ABOUT BOND YIELDS. He is not happy with what the Treasury is doing, thinks that it’s effectively a gimmick, and wants the Bond Market to freely determine where yields should go. His op-ed summarized below: - The Treasury’s decision to double long-dated bond buybacks from $2B to at least $4B per operation looks less like liquidity management and more like an effort to push down long-term yields after the 30-year yield reached a 19-year high. - There was no clear market dysfunction forcing intervention. Auctions were functioning, volatility was contained, and trading remained orderly. With inflation still above target, unemployment near full employment, deficits around 6% of GDP, and debt above $40T, higher yields can be viewed as the market pricing fiscal risk appropriately. - Suppressing those yields risks weakening one of the few remaining forms of fiscal discipline on Washington. Lower borrowing costs reduce the pressure to deal with deficits, entitlement spending, and the broader debt trajectory. - Buying long-duration Treasuries while funding the purchases with short-term bills effectively removes duration risk from the market, making it resemble a small form of quantitative easing conducted by Treasury rather than the Fed. The concern is that once markets believe officials are defending a certain yield level, they may keep testing that commitment. - The better solution is to let the bond market set the price of government borrowing and address the underlying fiscal problem directly: reduce the primary deficit, reform entitlements gradually, and manage debt more responsibly. Liquidity tools can delay a fiscal problem, but they can’t solve it. These yields are becoming an issue. When someone like Drucks has to write an op-ed, you know he’s getting annoyed. Either we cut back on spending and get fiscal policy in order (no party will do that) or we end the Iran war to get yields down. If we don’t do either, this problem isn’t going away.

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• Aug 20, 20262.1x their median

  The Big Tech Bond Paradox, Explained: 1. The United States just hit $40T in debt. The only way for us to deal with this is growth because no political party is ready to cut spending. 2. How are we getting that growth? AI CapEx. That CapEx is coming from Big Tech companies like Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle. 3. How have those Big Tech companies been funding the capex? Well, initially it was their free cash flow, but that dried up so now, it's by issuing bonds. Google issued a 100 year bond with a 6% yield. Meta and Oracle have 6-8% yields as well. 4. The US 10-year treasury is yielding 4.7% and the 30-year is yielding 5.2%. The US sells these treasuries in order to fund the government. People buy them with an expectation that it is the safest return they can get because the US will never default on their debt. The yields that are currently being offered are the highest in decades. 5. What's the problem? Well, the Big Tech companies are giving bond yields at 200-300 basis points ABOVE what the US Treasury is offering...which is an issue because if you are a credit investor and don't think that Meta or Google are going out of business...why would you not buy their debt over the US debt? As a result, people are SELLING US treasuries, causing yields to go higher, and buying Big Tech corporate debt. The paradox in all of this is that Big Tech NEEDS to issue this debt in order to continue to spend on capex and that same capex growth is what is supposed to solve our debt issues! If Big Tech stopped spending on capex, we wouldn't have any growth, but in order for them to grow, they have to issue bonds with high coupons and take away money from the long end of the curve for US treasuries, causing the highest yields we've seen in 20 years. The simple way to resolve all of this is to end the Iran War because oil prices will go down, inflation expectations will go down, and credit markets will buy up US treasuries yielding 4.5-4.7% since they will be getting a great yield on lower inflation expectations. The problem is, the war hasn't stopped for months and the market doesn't think it's stopping anytime soon...which means until it does, we have to deal with higher oil prices, higher yields on bonds, and more uncertainty for stocks if the credit market continues to scream that they need yields to come down.

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• Aug 12, 20262.1x their median

  BURRY: - I SHORTED MORE $MU $ORCL & $NBIS TODAY - NEBIUS IS WHAT THE TOP OF A BOOM LOOKS LIKE - DEPRECIATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN, THE SAME THING THAT EXTENDED THE DOT COM BUBBLE looks like he’s doubling down

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• Aug 18, 20262.0x their median

  Why stocks are selling off: - vix was at a 2yr low yesterday, any level of volatility up was going to take stocks down - 10yr treasury bond is above 4.7% and 30yr is 5.3% which just not sustainable at these levels, last time we were pushing these yields, the S&P was down 30% - japan 30yr yields surged above 4%, highest in history…just not good - trump posted that the US is having no conversations with Iran, more uncertainty - tech names had a very solid first two weeks of August, giving back some of those gains is natural but given they rallied so hard, the downturn ends up being ugly as well even though these names are still very green from the lows basically, not an earnings/ai bubble story for the selloff feels more like a bond yields/trump iran uncertainty story

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• Aug 26, 20261.9x their median

  A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. The U.S. reportedly offered Iran a deal to halt the siege and lift sanctions in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending proxy attacks, according to Al Arabiya. Axios also reports that Rubio told several foreign counterparts the U.S. does not plan new strikes on Iran for now, with pressure shifting toward the naval blockade and new sanctions campaign instead. Crude Oil fell 4% and the 10-year treasury bond fell from 4.72% to 4.62%. 2. Global physical gold-backed ETFs $GLD attracted $6.4B of inflows last week, their largest weekly intake since January and the 3rd-largest weekly inflow on record. North America led with $4.4B, followed by Europe at $1.7B and Asia at $300M. This marked the 7th straight week of inflows, with global gold ETFs pulling in $16.4B over that stretch. Total AUM in global gold ETFs rose by $33B last week to $615B, the highest level since the second week of May. 3. Intuit $INTU reported Q4’26 revenue of $4.4B, beating estimates of $4.27B and up 14% YoY. Adjusted EPS came in at $4.03 versus $3.58 expected. Global Business Solutions revenue rose 14% YoY to $3.4B, the Online Ecosystem grew 17% YoY to $2.6B, Consumer revenue increased 14% YoY to $930M, and Credit Karma revenue rose 16% YoY to $743M. For FY27, Intuit guided revenue to $23.3B–$23.5B versus $23.72B expected, while adjusted EPS guidance of $22.88–$23.12 came in well below the $27.32 estimate. The company also raised its dividend 15% YoY to $1.38/share, bought back $5.5B of stock, and has $7.9B remaining on its authorization. Management said its strategy is to win as an AI-driven expert platform while staying disciplined on investments and scaling its big bets. 4. President Trump said the U.S. Navy has removed and/or detonated all mines from international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. He said Iran has been notified that any ship or boat placing new mines will be “immediately and systematically destroyed.” Trump added that Space Force is monitoring every square inch of the Strait, along with Pickaxe Mountain and the three previously destroyed nuclear sites, and said a “Zero Tolerance” policy on mine placement is now in full effect. 5. Canada is responding to U.S. tariffs with new tariffs of its own. The country is raising steel tariffs to 50% from 25%, while roughly 700 products will face new tariff rates of 15%, 25%, and 50%. The measures are set to take effect on September 8, marking another escalation in the U.S.–Canada trade dispute. 6. Anthropic is expected to tell IPO investors its total addressable market exceeds $30T, topping SpaceX’s $28.5T estimate, according to WSJ. The figure represents the potential value of work Anthropic believes AI models could eventually perform, not a direct revenue forecast. Anthropic generated $11.6B in Q2 revenue and could seek to raise as much as $100B at roughly a $2T valuation. IPO documents are expected within weeks, potentially setting up a September or early October listing. 7. OpenAI’s data-center head Chris Malone left the company last week, according to WSJ. Malone joined in March 2025 shortly after Stargate was announced and played a key role overseeing OpenAI’s massive data-center buildout. He previously led data-center strategy at Meta and earlier worked on data-center technology at Google. The departure comes just weeks after OpenAI also replaced its chief revenue officer, adding another senior leadership change as the company races to scale infrastructure, revenue, and compute capacity. 8. ClickHouse has surpassed $350M in annual recurring revenue, up 40% since May, as AI agents drive demand for database and observability infrastructure. OpenAI’s usage has reportedly grown roughly 10x over the past year to more than 30 petabytes of data per day, or around 30T events daily. OpenAI has also shifted parts of its log-management workload from Datadog to ClickHouse over the past year. ClickHouse was valued at $15B in January and says gross margins currently range from 50%–70%. Earlier this year, the company acquired Langfuse to expand deeper into monitoring AI applications and agents. Nebius $NBIS owned a 28% stake in ClickHouse as of May 2025, though that stake has likely been diluted by subsequent fundraising. 9. JPMorgan reiterated its Overweight rating on SpaceX $SPCX with a $240 price target, saying the company’s AI ambitions are coming into sharper focus and that it is increasingly positive on Grok. The firm highlighted SpaceX’s completed acquisition of Cursor on 8/14 as an important step in building enterprise AI capabilities. Cursor brings roughly $4B of ARR as of June 2026, with about 75% coming from businesses, which JPMorgan says should help streamline go-to-market and provide valuable model-training data. The firm also said Cursor data is already showing up in Grok’s supplemental training, with tangible improvements in recent model performance. 10. OpenAI says its new Broadcom-built Jalapeno AI chip outperformed Nvidia $NVDA GB300 in both throughput per watt and response latency during internal testing, according to Bloomberg. The chip is built specifically for inference, not training, and runs at roughly 700 watts. OpenAI plans to begin deploying Jalapeno for its models later this year, saying the performance gap widened on larger workloads, including Moonshot’s Kimi model, and that the chip has also performed well on unreleased OpenAI models. The key caveat is that Jalapeno was tested against GB300, not Nvidia’s newer Vera Rubin generation. OpenAI says a second-generation chip is already nearing tape-out, while work on a third generation has begun. 11. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 1.8M contracts, $TSLA with 1.8M contracts, $AAPL with 636K contracts, $SPCX with 548K contracts, $INTC with 540K contracts, $AMZN with 498K contracts, $MU with 483K contracts, $AMD with 403K contracts, $PLTR with 361K contracts, and $SOFI with 359K contracts. 12. Raymond James raised its Nvidia $NVDA price target to $352 from $330 and reiterated a Strong Buy rating. The firm says Nvidia’s CPU opportunity is becoming more important, especially for agentic AI workloads, even though CPUs are only about 3% of sales today. Raymond James expects CPU revenue to reach roughly 5% of total revenue by CY28 and believes Nvidia could potentially become the world leader in CPU revenue within several years. The firm also argued the stock remains inexpensive, trading at less than 15x CY27 GAAP earnings, below the S&P 500 at 18.6x, despite sales and net income growth still expected to exceed 20% in CY28. Its new $352 target is based on a 22x multiple on CY28 estimates, which Raymond James views as conservative given Nvidia’s leadership, CUDA moat, GPU performance, free cash flow, and history of trading at much higher multiples. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

  3.1K18780111.5M viewsView on X
• Aug 16, 20261.6x their median

  I think $UBER looks compelling here. At ~$76, I think fair value is closer to $120. The numbers are pretty compelling: - Uber generated ~$9.8B of FCF in 2025, up 42% YoY - Consensus has FCF reaching ~$11B in 2026 and ~$13B in 2027 - Uber now has 200M+ monthly users and processes 40M+ trips per day - Uber trades around 12x projected 2027 FCF despite FCF still expected to grow ~18% that year The obvious reason for the discount is autonomous vehicles. The market is worried Waymo/Tesla eventually disintermediate Uber. I think the opposite outcome could be underpriced: Uber becomes the demand, distribution and payments layer connecting hundreds of millions of consumers with AV fleets. I am not fully sold on this thesis…but what if that’s how it plays out? Would Uber not be the most obvious name trading at an irrationally priced discount? Uber has 200M+ monthly users and enormous existing demand. An AV manufacturer has to build the cars, operate the fleet, maintain them, reposition them, and then somehow acquire millions of riders. That’s why I find the valuation interesting here. You aren’t paying 30x FCF and hoping Uber wins AV…you’re paying roughly 12x 2027 FCF for the existing business and getting the possibility that Uber becomes a major AV distribution layer. If AVs destroy Uber’s moat, the discount makes sense, the question is if that will actually happen. Using roughly $13B of 2027 FCF: Bear case: 17x FCF → $108 Base case: 19x FCF → $120/share Bull case: 22x FCF → $140/share No position yet but the risk/reward is compelling.

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